anthony taguest·sydney --:--
ASX 200 8,785▼0.2S&P 500 7,543.64▲0.8Nasdaq Comp 26,206.89▲1.3Dow 52,487.44▲0.3FTSE 100 10,436▼0.5Nikkei 225 66,819▼2.1Hang Seng 24,199▲3.0Nifty 50 23,963▲0.3VIX 16.90AUD/USD 0.6945Brent $78.02▲5.2Gold $4,088Bitcoin $63,187▲1.8
ahead14 Jul US CPI (Jun)15 Jul China Q2 GDP + US PPI16 Jul US retail sales; US bank earnings begin
driving today
A split tape: US equities rallied on semiconductors and AI optimism while the Middle East escalation supported crude and gold and kept yields firm. Asia was mixed, with Hang Seng surging on China stimulus hopes and the Nikkei soft.
bottom line
- 1US megacap tech and semiconductors drove a broad Wall Street rally, lifting the read-through for NDQ despite the Mag 7 lagging the S&P 500 year-to-date.
- 2Middle East escalation (renewed US-Iran strikes, Hormuz back in focus) keeps a risk premium under Brent, WTI and gold, a net positive for Australian energy and gold names but an inflation risk.
- 3Higher-for-longer is the dominant rates theme: Fed at 3.50-3.75% with a hawkish tilt and the RBA holding 4.35% after three 2026 hikes; US 10yr near 4.58%, AU 10yr near 4.90%.
- 4China stimulus hopes powered a near 3% Hang Seng jump, supportive for VGE and iron ore demand sentiment.
- 5AUD/USD around 0.6945 with a firm-ish USD means unhedged offshore ETFs (NDQ, BGBL, VGE) get little FX tailwind today.
- •US indices rallied: S&P 500 +0.81% to 7,543.64, Nasdaq Composite +1.30% to 26,206.89, Dow +0.27% to 52,487.44, led by semiconductors and revived AI optimism.
- •Magnificent 7 up just ~2.6% in 2026 and trailing the S&P; Alphabet leads (+14.5% YTD) while Meta and Microsoft lag; Nvidia is now ~21% of the group and the largest member.
- •ASX blue chips mixed: banks including CBA pulled back, BHP slid on the miners while RIO set the mining tone; Hang Seng jumped +2.99% on China stimulus hopes.
- •Brent settled ~$78.02 (+5.2%) and WTI ~$73.52 (+4.4%) before easing below $73 as a second day of US strikes on Iran kept a Hormuz supply premium in play.
- •Gold near $4,088/oz (August futures), off its early-week dip toward $4,030, holding a safe-haven bid amid the conflict.
- •Iron ore ~$98.86/t and copper rebounding ~1.8% to ~$13,455/t; supportive for BHP, RIO and FMG.
- •RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% after three hikes in 2026; markets price only ~15% for an August move and ~50-50 that the tightening cycle is over, with minutes read as hawkish.
- •Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75% under Chair Warsh with a hawkish tilt; median end-2026 dot at 3.8% implies a possible further hike, and cuts are pushed toward 2027 after core PCE ran 3.4% (headline 4.1%).
- •US 10yr yield near 4.58% (touched 4.60%, highest since May); AU 10yr near 4.90%, keeping HISA and VAF income elevated but capping bond price gains.
refreshed every morning before the open