anthony taguest·sydney --:--
ASX 200 9,059▼0.3S&P 500 7,674▲0.4Nasdaq 100 29,309▲0.3VIX 15.1▼5.5Nikkei 65,528▼0.7AUD/USD 0.717▲0.8BTC $77.7k▲0.7Brent $92▼2.3Gold $4,646▲0.8Hang Seng 25,465▼2.1USD/JPY 159.1▲0.1Iron ore $95▲0.1US 10Y 4.71%
ahead28 Aug Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair16-17 Sep FOMC decision24 Sep ABS Labour Force, August29 Sep RBA decision
driving today
Wall Street closed last week firm despite a choppy bond market — S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both up on Friday — but the VIX sliding to 15 while 10-year yields hold near 4.7% looks like a gap the market has to close. Gold keeps hitting fresh highs on the debasement trade, the yen has drifted back toward 159 after early-August's US-Japan intervention, and the ASX heads into Monday on a firmer SPI lead after a soft Friday close.
bottom line
- 1Wall Street closed the week firm — S&P 500 +0.43% to 7,674, Nasdaq 100 +0.33% to 29,309 — but bond-market volatility stayed the dominant theme after last week's yield spike, not earnings.
- 2VIX fell 5.5% to 15.1 even with 10-year yields still near 4.7% — that gap between calm equities and elevated rates is a tension the market hasn't resolved yet.
- 3The yen is still working through the early-August US-Japan joint intervention — USD/JPY back up near 159, giving back most of the gains from the coordinated buying.
- 4Gold keeps grinding to fresh highs (~$4,646, +0.83%) on the 'debasement trade' — record US debt, a soft dollar, elevated yields — while Brent slid over 2% to ~$92 on Iran-pressure-plan uncertainty.
- 5ASX 200 closed Friday down 0.3% to 9,059; SPI futures point to a firmer ~0.45% open Monday on the positive US lead, with energy names in focus.
- 6RBA held at 4.35% in August with Bullock leaving the door open to a hike if inflation surprises; markets price roughly 90% odds of another hold on 29 September.
- •S&P 500 +0.43% to 7,674 and Nasdaq 100 +0.33% to 29,309 Friday, both closing out a choppy week dominated by bond-market volatility rather than earnings.
- •VIX dropped 5.5% to 15.1 even with 10-year yields still near 4.7%, a gap markets will need to close one way or the other.
- •ASX 200 fell 0.3% to 9,059 on Friday; SPI futures point to a roughly 0.45% firmer open Monday on the positive US lead.
- •Hang Seng down over 2% and Nikkei off 0.7%, Asia lagging the US bounce as the yen and regional currencies stay under pressure.
- •Gold at fresh highs near $4,646 (+0.83%), the 'debasement trade' still running on record US debt and a soft dollar.
- •Brent fell over 2% to roughly $92, unwinding part of its two-week rally as traders wait on details of the US plan to tighten pressure on Iran.
- •Iron ore steady around $95, with Chinese port data showing falling inventories and active restocking — a support for the ASX miners.
- •RBA held at 4.35% on 11 August, unanimous; governor Bullock says the hold doesn't rule out a future hike if inflation runs hot.
- •Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday 28 August, 19 days before the 16-17 September FOMC — the week's key event risk.
- •Yen has drifted back toward 159/USD, giving back most of early August's coordinated US-Japan intervention gains; further action not ruled out.
refreshed every morning before the open